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The goal of this paper is predicting the conformational distributions of ligand binding sites using the AlphaFold2 (AF2) protein structure prediction program with stochastic subsampling of the multiple sequence alignment (MSA). We explored the opening of cryptic ligand binding sites in 16 proteins, where the closed and open conformations define the expected extreme points of the conformational variation. Due to the many structures of these proteins in the Protein Data Bank (PDB), we were able to study whether the distribution of X-ray structures affects the distribution of AF2 models. We have found that AF2 generates both a cluster of open and a cluster of closed models for proteins that have comparable numbers of open and closed structures in the PDB and not too many other conformations. This was observed even with default MSA parameters, thus without further subsampling. In contrast, with the exception of a single protein, AF2 did not yield multiple clusters of conformations for proteins that had imbalanced numbers of open and closed structures in the PDB, or had substantial numbers of other structures. Subsampling improved the results only for a single protein, but very shallow MSA led to incorrect structures. The ability of generating both open and closed conformations for six out of the 16 proteins agrees with the success rates of similar studies reported in the literature. However, we showed that this partial success is due to AF2 “remembering” the conformational distributions in the PDB and that the approach fails to predict rarely seen conformations. 

Abstract In computational biology, accurate prediction of phosphopeptide-protein complex structures is essential for understanding cellular functions and advancing drug discovery and personalized medicine. While AlphaFold has significantly improved protein structure prediction, it faces accuracy challenges in predicting structures of complexes involving phosphopeptides possibly due to structural variations introduced by phosphorylation in the peptide component. Our study addresses this limitation by refining AlphaFold to improve its accuracy in modeling these complex structures. We employed weighted metrics for a comprehensive evaluation across various protein families. The enhanced model notably outperforms the original AlphaFold, showing a substantial increase in the weighted average local distance difference test (lDDT) scores for peptides: from 52.74 to 76.51 in the Top 1 model and from 56.32 to 77.91 in the Top 5 model. These advancements not only deepen our understanding of the role of phosphorylation in cellular signaling but also have extensive implications for biological research and the development of innovative therapies. 

Major histocompatibility complex Class I (MHC-I) molecules bind to peptides derived from intracellular antigens and present them on the surface of cells, allowing the immune system (T cells) to detect them. Elucidating the process of this presentation is essential for regulation and potential manipulation of the cellular immune system. Predicting whether a given peptide binds to an MHC molecule is an important step in the above process and has motivated the introduction of many computational approaches to address this problem. NetMHCPan, a pan-specific model for predicting binding of peptides to any MHC molecule, is one of the most widely used methods which focuses on solving this binary classification problem using shallow neural networks. The recent successful results of Deep Learning (DL) methods, especially Natural Language Processing (NLP-based) pretrained models in various applications, including protein structure determination, motivated us to explore their use in this problem. Specifically, we consider the application of deep learning models pretrained on large datasets of protein sequences to predict MHC Class I-peptide binding. Using the standard performance metrics in this area, and the same training and test sets, we show that our models outperform NetMHCpan4.1, currently considered as the-state-of-the-art. 

Advances in a scientific discipline are often measured by small, incremental steps. In this review, we report on two intertwined disciplines in the protein structure prediction field, modeling of single chains and modeling of complexes, that have over decades emulated this pattern, as monitored by the community-wide blind prediction experiments CASP and CAPRI. However, over the past few years, dramatic advances were observed for the accurate prediction of single protein chains, driven by a surge of deep learning methodologies entering the prediction field. We review the mainscientific developments that enabled these recent breakthroughs and feature the important role of blind prediction experiments in building up and nurturing the structure prediction field. We discuss how the new wave of artificial intelligence–based methods is impacting the fields of computational and experimental structural biology and highlight areas in which deep learning methods are likely to lead to future developments, provided that major challenges are overcome.